Friday, October 16, 2009

iPhone 3GSの需要は供給量を超える

Digital Daily:Worldwide Demand for iPhone 3GS Outstripping Supply
by John Paczkowski

iPhone 3GSの需要が供給を上回っていることは,
Piper JaffrayのアナリストGene Munsterが第四四半期の売上見込みと,
投資家の見込みが良いことからわかる.
MunsterはAppleがMacとiPhoneの売上増により,一般の予測より良いと見ている.

Demand exceeding supply for the Apple iPhone 3GS is one of the big takeaways from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster’s earnings preview for Apple’s September quarter and it obviously bodes well for the company’s investors. Munster sees Apple (AAPL) beating the Street’s estimates thanks to increased sales of both Macs and iPhones.

アナリストによると,第四四半期最初の2ヶ月は前年比7%増であった.
iPhoneはもっと好調だ.

As the analyst notes, NPD data for the first two months of the September quarter show Mac sales up about seven percent year over year. iPhone sales are even more robust.

「我々が調べたところによると,世界全体のiPhone 3GSの需要は供給量を上回っている」
とMunsterは記した.
「この強い需要により,第四四半期にiPhone 3GSが750万台売れると我々は信じている」

“Our checks indicate that worldwide demand for the iPhone 3GS is outstripping supply,” Munster writes. “This strong level of demand, we believe, will support unit sell-through of about 7.5m units in the Sept. quarter.”

Munsterはさらに続け,
「PJC WirelessのアナリストMike Walkleyが調べたところでは,
第四四半期最初の2ヶ月はiPhone 3GSの売上に制約があったようだ.
また我々も,世界全体の市場に制約があると見ている.
メディアはイタリアの携帯電話キャリア3 ItaliaのCEOが,
月間2万台のiPhoneが売れていることを明らかにしたが,
供給が十分であれば,その二倍以上の売上が可能であったと思う」

Continuing, Munster notes that “PJC Wireless Analyst Mike Walkley’s checks for the first two months of the Sept. quarter indicated constraints at retail for the iPhone 3GS. We have also seen signs of constraints in international markets. Media reports indicate that the CEO of wireless carrier 3 Italia indicated that the company is selling 20k iPhones per month, but could sell more than double that amount if it had adequate supply.”

これが問題だとしても,いずれ解決する問題だとMunsterは指摘する.
「供給の制約の問題は短期間の問題だが,
我々は長期的に見ても,世界全体で見ても,iPhone 3GSの需要はとても強い」

If this is problem, Munster asserts, it’s a fleeting one: “While supply constraint is a issue near-term, we see it as a long term positive, as worldwide demand appears to be very strong for the iPhone 3GS.”

第三四半期は,Appleは市場予測より4%低い収入であった.
EPSは12%低かった.
しかしAppleの実際の結果は,市場予測に比べて,
3%高い収入と24%高いEPSとなる.
MunsterはAppleが月曜に報告する業績でこのようになると予測している.

In quarters past, Apple has guided revenue four percent below Street expectations on average and earnings-per-share 12 percent below Street expectations. But the company’s actual results have typically beaten those estimates by an average of three percent on revenue and by 24 percent on earnings per share. Munster expects this to be the case again when Apple reports earnings on Monday.

RBC Capital MarketsのアナリストMike AbramskyはAppleの業績報告は,
同じ理由で上記と同じになるだろうと見ている.
「調査によるとiPhone 3GSは最も人気のスマートフォンで,
AT&Tや海外のグローバルキャリア(O2 UK, Rogersなど)でも同じだ」
彼は投資家向けに記した.

Over at RBC Capital Markets, analyst Mike Abramsky sees Apple’s forthcoming earnings report playing out in much the same way for largely the same reasons. “Checks show that the iPhone 3GS is the most popular Smartphone at AT&T and other global carriers (e.g., O2 UK, Rogers),” he wrote in a note to investors today.

Abramskyは加えて,
「6月に発売したにもかかわらず,iPhone 3GSの各モデルはAppleストアとキャリアで第四四半期になっても売り切れだ.
調査では9月上旬にようやく在庫が潤ってきた.
前モデルiPhone 3Gは3GSの発売以来売れ行きが下がっているが,
99ドルのiPhone 3Gは北アメリカ以外での売上を牽引すると信じている.
前金制であるためだ(これはプリペイド通話料の地域にとっては重要だ)

“Despite launch in June,” Abramsky added, “some models of the iPhone 3GS were stocked out at Apple retail stores and carrier stores through Q4; however, checks show retail availability appears to have improved early September. While sell-through of the prior-gen iPhone 3G has been slow at AT&T since the launch of the iPhone 3GS, we believe the $99 iPhone 3G is gaining traction outside North America given lower upfront cost (important where prepaid is high).”

No comments: