Friday, September 25, 2009

App Storeも儲かっている

barron's:Apple: Yes, It Makes Money On The App Store
By Eric Savitz

App StoreがAppleの携帯電話事業の一面で,変化していることは周知の事実だ.
その勢いは,他社が必死に追いつきたいほどだ.
最終集計では,Appleは1800万個以上のダウンロード数を記録し,
75000以上のアプリが販売されている.
Bernstein ResearchのアナリストToni Sacconaghiは,
AppleのApp Storeはスマートフォン市場の価値を最初に見いだした,と指摘した.
「これはとても真似できるものではない」
プラットフォームと最高のアプリケーションストアが手を組むとき,
ユーザーを魅了し,開発者を鼓舞できる.
これが崇高なサイクルを生み出す,
iPodとiTunesが音楽を変え,WindowsとIntelがPCを変えたように.

There is widespread agreement that the Apple (AAPL) App Store has changed the face of the handset business, forcing other companies to scramble in a desperate attempt to keep up. At last count, Apple said over 1.8 billion apps had been downloaded; there are more than 75,000 apps in the store. Bernstein Research analyst Toni Sacconaghi asserts that the company with the App Store has a powerful first mover advantage at the high-end of the smartphone market “that will be difficult to emulate.” His view is that platforms with the best application stores will attract the most users, spurring developers to create more software, “creating a virtuous circle,” in much the same way that iPod and iTunes came to dominant music, and Windows and Intel became a PC standard.

しかし,儲けにつながるのだろうか?

But does it make money?

Sacconaghiはこの疑問を追求した.
Appleの助けなしでその答えを得るため,彼は多くの事実を示した.
まず90%以上の人気アプリがフリーということだ.
この割合は,全体ではもっと大きい.
彼は13-21%のアプリが有料であると見積もり,
トップ100の内7%が,
それ以下1000位までの35%が有料であるとした.
また,有料アプリの平均価格は約3ドルとした.

In his note, Sacconaghi dug in to that very question. To get to the answer without any help from Apple, he took a number of factors into considers. For starters, he notes that more than 90% of the most popular apps are free; the percentage is higher for the rest of the offerings. He estimates that 13%-21% of all downloaded Apps are paid, including 7% of the top 100, and 35% of the next 900. He also estimates that the average price for paid apps is around $3.

この分析はさらに精製される.
App StoreのAppleの利益は四半期で6000万-1億1000万ドルであると結論づけた.
プラス,開発者には1億4000万-2億5000万ドルの利益がある.
50%の管理マージンがあるとして,App Storeは2-4セントの配当を四半期に与えている.
さらに,iTunesがこのレベルに届くためには6-8四半期必要であると見積もった,
AppleはiTunesの配当を100%としているにもかかわらずである,

The analysis goes deeper into the weeds from there, and when he comes out, Sacconaghi concludes that Apple generates $60 million to $110 million in revenue per quarter for itself, plus another $140 million to $250 million for the developers. Assuming a 50% operating margin, he finds that the App Store is contributing 2-4 cents a share in profits per quarter. He notes that it took an estimated 6-8 quarters for iTunes to reach a similar revenue run rate, despite Apple capturing 100% of those revenues.

彼の最高の四半期見積もりを基準にすると,
App Storeは既に年間10億ドルをiPhone/iPOd touch向けに販売していることになる.
そしてその勢いはとどまらない.
これはアプリ開発者にとっておいしい.
そしてライバルのスマートフォンメーカーにとって深刻な問題だ.

Another way of looking at this, if you use the high end of his revenue estimates, is that the App Store has already created a more than $1 billion annual market for paid iPhone and iPod Touch applications - and the pace of growth is hardly slowing down. That’s a nice fat target for app developers - and a serious competitive issue for the other smart phone makers.

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